The beginning of 2026 has been one of turmoil in the Middle East due to serious divisions inside the Taliban leadership, according to a recent BBC investigation.
The report paints a picture that show Supreme leader Hibatullah Akhundzada ruling from Kandahar with hardline loyalists while powerful ministers in Kabul push for more pragmatic changes. The growing rift, highlighted by leaked audio where Akhundzada warns of collapse from internal discord, creates vulnerabilities that anti-Taliban resistance groups can now exploit.
Unity amongst the Taliban leadership, once a strength while operating in exile in Pakistan, has been showing obvious cracks. These rifts largely arise from the power dynamic at play, with Akhundzada as a major example due to its consolidation of absolute power in Kandahar and how it has issued edicts without consulting Kabul-based officials.
Officials including Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani and Defense Minister Mohammad Yaqoob Mujahid seem to favor more pragmatic engagement with the world, economic growth and limited reforms. Many Afghanistan observers have noticed the Kandahar versus Kabul crisis beginning to boil over, with isolationist ideologues in the South (Kandahar) against pragmatists in Kabul who recognize strict rule cannot sustain indefinitely.
The supreme leader's paranoia infamously runs deep. He rarely meets ministers, communicates through clerics, and hides his face in public. Key decisions, including weapon distribution and security forces, shift to his loyalists and bypass cabinet members.
Defiance Reaches Breaking Point
Tensions exploded in late 2025 when Akhundzada ordered a nationwide internet shutdown, viewing online content as un-Islamic.
Kabul ministers, seeing the move as disastrous for governance and economy, reversed the order within days. They convinced the prime minister to restore access, marking rare open rebellion against the supreme leader's direct command.
This defiance underscores the fragile grip that Kandahar has on the country. Taliban cohesion relies on obedience; defying Akhundzada sends a signal that even insiders question his authoritarian grip.
Women's Rights Erased Under Draconian Rule
Taliban oppression has hit women the hardest, which in turn has fueled significant resentment.
Girls remain banned from secondary education, now entering a fifth year of restrictions in 2026. Women face bans from most work, public speech, and travel without male guardians. Public floggings and virtue enforcements persist to create fear.
These policies isolate Afghanistan globally and alienate populations. Even some Taliban members question the education bans, as international recognition largely remains elusive for the authoritarian regime—though the hardliners in Kandahar generally prevail.
Harboring Terrorists Amid Instability
The regime continues hosting Al Qaeda despite Doha Agreement promises.
A 2022 U.S. strike killed Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri who was being hosted by the Taliban, for example, which was a flagrant violation of the Doha Agreement.
No current evidence suggest that the Taliban have made any progress in eliminating internationally recognized terrorists such as Al Qaeda or ISIS-K from the country. These organizations continue to operate with Afghanistan as a safe haven for them, posing threats to regional and global security.
Internal fractures distract from counterterrorism. The pragmatists in Kabul may tolerate such ties less, but Akhundzada's faction protects extremists.
Resistance Forces Gain Momentum
Anti-Taliban groups are actively working to capitalize on the chaos and dissent with the Taliban.
The National Resistance Front (NRF), active in Panjshir and northern provinces, reports increased recruitment and operations. Defections from disillusioned Taliban ranks grow and local uprisings have spread in provinces like Badakhshan and other areas.
Resistance movements can continue to exploit these leadership disputes. A fractured Taliban command structure hinders coordinated responses. Young Afghans, frustrated by repression and economic stagnation, see incentives to join any armed opposition to the Taliban. These forces, though scattered and fragmented themselves, remain persistent as they continue to gain ground as regime infighting intensifies, according to some analysts.
Outlook for Afghanistan in 2026
Taliban fractures offer no quick collapse, yet they do signal regime decline.
Draconian policies, terrorist ties and internal rebellion continue to erode their legitimacy. A surging resistance effort in the country provides hope for change, though challenges remain.
U.S. and NATO veterans who served in Afghanistan recognize these warnings from the withdrawal era as they now materialize. Continued infighting, lack of significant international recognition, and border disputes with Pakistan make the tenuous Taliban grip on the country that much more difficult.
