As U.S. forces conduct expanded operations in the Caribbean, Venezuelan leaders have placed their military on high alert and mobilized civilian militias. The government in Caracas’ doctrine stipulates more than eight million armed civilians standing ready to mobilize against foreign intervention. Recent deployments, including carrier strike groups and Marine expeditionary units positioned close to Venezuelan waters, highlight the growing tension
Roots in Chavismo and Civic-Military Union
Venezuela's current defense posture stems directly from the Bolivarian Revolution launched by Hugo Chávez in 1999. “Chavismo” blends socialist ideology with strong nationalist elements and emphasizes a "civic-military union." Under this framework, the armed forces serve as protectors of the revolution itself, not just the state. The 1999 Constitution and later reforms elevated the military's role in domestic affairs and created the Bolivarian National Armed Forces (FANB).
A key component is the Bolivarian National Militia, established as a fifth branch alongside the army, navy, air force, and national guard. This militia integrates civilians into the defense structure, with the stated goal of involving the entire population in national security. Military education incorporates political loyalty to these principles, creating a force designed to preserve the existing political order.
The Doctrine of Guerra de Todo el Pueblo
Venezuela's formal defense strategy is known as Guerra de Todo el Pueblo, or War of All the People.
This concept calls for prolonged resistance rather than conventional battles against a superior adversary. In the event of invasion, regular forces would avoid decisive engagements and instead disperse into smaller units.
The plan relies on geographic advantages, such as dense urban areas in Caracas (and other cities), mountainous terrain, and vast jungles. Militia members and pro-government colectivos would conduct hit-and-run attacks, sabotage infrastructure, and create widespread disruption. The objective is to raise the political and human cost for any occupying force, drawing parallels to past insurgencies that drained resources over time. Officials describe this as turning the country into a nation of resistors where every citizen participates in defense.
Challenges for Sustained Ground Operations
Any large-scale land campaign in Venezuela would encounter this asymmetric approach from the outset. Initial air and naval superiority might secure beachheads or key facilities, but holding territory would require troops to operate in populated areas where regular soldiers and militias could blend with civilians.
Urban centers like Caracas, with narrow streets and high-density neighborhoods, favor defenders using small arms, improvised devices, and sniper teams. Rural and mountainous regions offer additional cover for guerrilla-style operations. A recent Military.com analysis highlighted that Venezuela's Russian-supplied systems and mobilized reserves are positioned to complicate ground advances.
Historical examples show that even limited occupations can extend timelines and increase casualties when facing determined irregular resistance. Venezuela's doctrine explicitly aims to exploit these dynamics by prolonging conflict until external pressure forces withdrawal.
Applying the DIME Framework to Reduce Risks
The DIME model (Diplomatic, Information, Military, and Economic instruments of national power) is a holistic view of tools available to achieve political objectives.
In a hypothetical Venezuela scenario, coordinated application across all elements could limit the effectiveness of “people's war” tactics.
Diplomatically, building coalitions with regional partners and international organizations would isolate the target regime and gain support for post-conflict governance. Information operations, including strategic communications and cyber capabilities, could counter regime narratives, highlight humanitarian concerns, and encourage defections among military and militia ranks.
Militarily, precision strikes, special operations, and rapid maneuver would focus on neutralizing command nodes and key enablers while minimizing civilian exposure. Economically, targeted sanctions and asset freezes, combined with humanitarian aid channels, could continue to weaken regime control and build goodwill among the population.
The Need for Clear Political Objectives
Military success in such environments depends on achievable end states. A defined political goal, such as enabling a transition to a stable government led by credible opposition elements acceptable to the Venezuelan people, provides the framework for all operations.
Without this clarity, even tactical victories risk prolonged entanglement. Clear objectives must be established to allow phasing: initial disruption of regime capabilities, followed by security stabilization, and finally handover to a legitimate and internationally recognized opposition. This approach, grounded in lessons from past interventions, aligns military action with the totality of national power to prevent open-ended commitments.
Venezuela's asymmetric doctrine presents serious challenges that are integrated into the country's political and social fabric. Planners must account for these factors to ensure any operation remains focused, proportional, and tied to realistic political outcomes.
