The war unfolding across Europe does not involve tanks or troops, but lawmakers warned last week it is already testing alliances, democracies and Western resolve.
That is according to Washington lawmakers and witnesses who spoke during a House Foreign Affairs Europe Subcommittee hearing on Dec. 16, who warned that Russia and China are testing alliances, democracies and Western resolve.
They said that the two major U.S. adversaries are already targeting Europe through cyberattacks, sabotage, disinformation and economic pressure. Witnesses told Congress the tactics are meant to stay below the threshold of open war while weakening NATO unity, undermining democratic institutions and eroding public support for Ukraine at a moment when U.S. and allied resolve is being tested.
Military.com reached out to the White House, the Defense Department, the State Department, U.S. European Command and the U.S. Mission to NATO for comment.
Avoiding Open Conflict
This fight is already underway, even if it does not look like war.
U.S. House Rep. Keith Self (R-TX), chair of the Europe Subcommittee, said the U.S. and its allies are operating in a contested environment where Russia and China exploit the space between peace and war.
“This is about inflicting damage without triggering a unified response,” he said during the hearing.
Rep. Bill Keating (D-MA), the ranking member of the Europe Subcommittee, warned the strategy depends on hesitation and division inside democratic societies.
“Our adversaries are counting on delay and disagreement,” Keating said. “If these actions are treated as isolated or insignificant, the damage compounds over time.”
Witnesses told lawmakers that hybrid tactics succeed precisely because they avoid clear red lines and exploit ambiguity around responsibility and intent. Cyber intrusions, sabotage and influence campaigns can be denied, obscured or framed as isolated incidents, making it harder for NATO governments to justify a forceful response.
“This is warfare designed to stay below the threshold that would normally trigger a collective response,” Laura K. Cooper, a former senior Pentagon official now at Georgetown University, told lawmakers.
Adversaries 'Pushing Without Crossing Line'
Russia and China, according to witnesses, are closely watching how the West reacts to each episode and using those reactions to measure how much pressure can be applied before consequences follow.
“When there is no clear cost imposed, that becomes a lesson,” Craig Singleton, senior director of the China program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told the panel. “It tells adversaries they can keep pushing without crossing a line that brings serious consequences.”
Christopher Walker, vice president for studies and analysis at the Center for European Policy Analysis, warned lawmakers that delayed or fragmented responses risk normalizing behavior designed to weaken democratic systems without provoking retaliation.
Russia’s Shadow War Across Europe
Russia is no longer limiting its war against Ukraine to the battlefield.
Moscow has expanded a campaign of covert pressure across Europe that includes sabotage, cyber activity and infrastructure disruption aimed far beyond the front lines, witnesses told lawmakers. The objective, they said, is to rattle publics, strain governments and make continued support for Ukraine feel costly, risky and politically divisive.
“Our adversaries are counting on delay and disagreement."
Cooper said that since 2022 Russia has carried out well over 100 acts of sabotage and attempted sabotage across Europe. The targets, she said, have included energy networks, transportation systems and other critical infrastructure that societies rely on daily.
“This is meant to create fear and fatigue,” Cooper told lawmakers. “The goal is to make support for Ukraine feel unsustainable over time.”
Warnings from European officials have sharpened that picture, with EU leaders describing a sustained campaign that includes pressure on energy systems and infrastructure far from the front lines.
The pattern also creates strategic ambiguity. Sabotage and cyber incidents can be denied, blamed on proxies, or buried in uncertainty—complicating decisions about attribution and retaliation.
The end result, witnesses said, is erosion rather than shock leading to slower decision-making, diminished unity, and a Europe less willing to absorb risk.
That erosion matters for the United States, Cooper said, due to NATO’s ability to deter Russia depending on speed and solidarity. Hybrid attacks that delay or divide responses can shape outcomes long before a conventional conflict begins.
China’s Quiet Push for Western Influence
China is playing a longer, quieter game in Europe though witnesses warned the end goal is the same: leverage when it matters most.
Singleton told lawmakers Beijing is positioning itself to shape European decision-making well before any crisis erupts.
“This is about shaping choices before a crisis ever begins,” Singleton said. “If you wait until the moment of confrontation, the leverage is already in place.”
Rather than relying on disruption, witnesses said China is embedding influence through economic ties, infrastructure access and political relationships that can be activated later.
Chinese investments in ports, telecommunications networks and supply chains, Singleton warned, could become pressure points if Europe faces high-stakes decisions involving Taiwan, sanctions on Beijing or deeper military cooperation with the United States.
“Economic ties can become political constraints,” Singleton said. “When countries are deeply entangled, it becomes harder to act quickly or collectively.”
The concern, witnesses said, is not a sudden break but gradual dependence leaving Europe constrained when unity and speed matter most.
Technology Turbocharges Disinformation Fight
Disinformation is no longer a background threat. Witnesses warned technology is amplifying its speed, reach and impact, making influence operations harder to detect and faster to spread.
“The speed and scale are what’s different now,” Walker told lawmakers. “Technology allows false narratives to spread faster and look more credible than ever before.”
Walker said artificial intelligence and automated tools increasingly exploit existing grievances rather than create new ones, magnifying polarization during moments of political stress.
Effects may include erosion of trust in democratic institutions, especially during elections or national crises. Disinformation paired with cyber activity and infrastructure disruption can magnify the political impact of incidents that might otherwise remain limited.
“The goal is not persuasion,” Walker said. “It’s confusion, division and delay.”
Electronic interference has also drawn fresh attention across Europe, with GPS jamming disrupting flights and raising alarms about hybrid tools that can create real-world risk while blurring attribution.
Vulnerabilities Beneath Europe’s Security
Critical infrastructure now sits at the center of Europe’s exposure to hybrid threats, turning systems people rely on every day into tools of strategic pressure.
Undersea cables, energy pipelines and digital networks drew repeated attention from lawmakers concerned about single points of failure that could be exploited during moments of crisis.
“You don’t need a massive outage to have a strategic effect,” Cooper said. “Even limited disruption can create economic pressure, public anxiety and political stress.”
“Even limited disruption can create economic pressure, public anxiety and political stress.”
She said even temporary disruptions can carry outsized consequences, especially when paired with cyber operations and coordinated disinformation.
“Infrastructure is attractive precisely because it sits below the threshold of war,” she added. “It creates disruption without a clear trigger for response.”
NATO has already moved to strengthen protection of undersea infrastructure in the Baltic Sea region after a series of cable incidents heightened concern about sabotage and escalation risks.
Damage to undersea links has piled up in the region, with at least 11 Baltic cables reported damaged over 15 months—a pattern that has driven new patrols and sharper warnings about hybrid threats below the waterline.
Lawmakers also raised concerns about Russia’s so-called shadow fleet of vessels, which witnesses said could be used to probe or interfere with undersea infrastructure while operating in legal gray areas that complicate attribution and delay response.
The danger warned is not a single catastrophic strike but cumulative disruption that slows decision-making, strains alliances and weakens deterrence without ever crossing the line into open conflict.
The Pressure Is Already On
The pressure on the United States and its allies is no longer theoretical, lawmakers and witnesses warned.
Hybrid attacks are already shaping decisions, testing alliances and probing how much disruption the West will tolerate before responding.
Lawmakers signaled interest in stronger coordination with allies, improved intelligence sharing, and greater investment in infrastructure protection. Witnesses urged faster action, warning that delay carries its own cost as adversaries refine tactics and normalize behavior designed to weaken democratic systems.
The conflict may remain largely invisible to the public, but experts told Congress the effects are already being felt across Europe. How the West responds will shape deterrence and the balance of power long before the next conventional war begins.
