U.S. President Donald Trump in hours will deliver his annual State of the Union address to Congress and the American public, on the backdrop of multiple foreign entanglements that may soon pit the United States against Iran.
The second joint speech of Trump’s second term will be delivered at 9 p.m. ET as part of an overarching theme, “America at 250: Strong, Prosperous and Respected,” according to CNN, anticipated to delve into national economics and the so-called affordability question that according to numerous polls has plagued the president in public perception throughout his current term, in addition to tariffs and the recent major U.S. Supreme Court position that has put the Trump administration on its heels.
Trump’s speech is also slated to incorporate foreign policy positions as tensions have escalated between the U.S. and Iran in recent days and weeks. U.S. and Iran negotiators are scheduled to meet later this week to discuss nuclear security as threats of wide-scale retaliation are becoming more vocal if land strikes become an actuality.
The conflict in Gaza between Israel and Palestine that involved numerous militant groups like Hamas also continues despite a ceasefire. Trump and his administration have championed that conflict, evident by the established Gaza Board of Peace which held its inaugural meeting last Thursday where the president pledged a $10 billion investment towards reconstruction efforts that could cost 5-10 times that amount in years ahead.
Tuesday is also the four-year anniversary of Russia invading Ukraine. Years of support from the U.S. and allies in NATO has essentially made that war a stalemate with estimates of millions of lives lost, and no real end in sight as Ukraine has always iterated no plans to relinquish territories unlawfully procured by Russia.
Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger will delivers Democrats' rebuttal to Trump's remarks.
US-Iran Tensions On Global Display
During his speech last week to other members of the Gaza Board of Peace, Trump connected the ongoing Gaza ceasefire to Operation Midnight Hammer, the code name for the United States’ June 22, 2025, attack on three Iranian nuclear facilities. He also threatened U.S. air strikes on Iranian soil if negotiations collapse.
Paul Poast, an associate political science professor at the University of Chicago, told Military.com that last summer’s attacks and the U.S. framing behind it—Trump and his allies have touted the strikes as leveling Iran’s nuclear capabilities—could have implications down the line.
“There's still questions about the extent to which it actually happened versus just simply delaying the program a bit,” said Poast, also a senior nonresident fellow of foreign policy and public opinion at the Chicago Council on Public Affairs. “But [Trump] directly thought that operation is what then enabled the possibility for peace because it lifted a cloud, as he said, and it made sides willing to start negotiating and talking—both Hamas, but also other nations in the region.”
Essentially, neutralizing Iran plays a pivotal role in securing long-term peace and stability in Gaza, according to Poast. That could translate to a worldview that the key to getting Hamas to disarm is to ensure that Iran doesn't encourage them.
“Maybe his view is that's why we have to put this maximum pressure on Iran, we have to get the nuclear deal,” Poast said. “We have to negotiate with them, or we have to even go to war with them, because that is what's going to be key to reigning in Iran to prevent them from encouraging Hamas to perhaps restart the war."
I think that is possible that's the angle he's thinking. It's not a coincidence that these things are going on at the same time, but obviously, a lot of things are happening at once.
U.S. lawmakers have sounded the alarm on invading Iran and starting a war without congressional approval, including U.S. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), who has arguably been the Trump administration’s most frequent critic in demanding the release of all the government files related to sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein.
“Congress must vote on war according to our Constitution. @RepRoKhanna [Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA)] and I will be forcing that vote to happen in the House as soon as possible. I will vote to put America first which means voting against more war in the Middle East,” Massie wrote on X last week.
Melding 'America First' with Conflicts Abroad
The Trump administration has long been a strong ally to Israel.
Annelle Sheline, a research fellow in the Middle East program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, told Military.com that Trump’s efforts—backed by his role in the Board and the new $10 billion pledge—signal a continued level of support beyond what is coming from the wealthy Gulf countries that she said “have been clear that they are not interested in paying to rebuild Gaza only to have Israel destroy it again in a few years.”
“Trump campaigned on an ‘America First’ foreign policy,” Sheline said. “He later cut billions of dollars in foreign aid, arguing that it didn't adequately serve U.S. interests. He later promised that there would be no American boots on the ground in Gaza."
Yet, all of this seems to be going out the window. If Trump does end up deploying U.S. troops to Gaza, Congress could use a war powers resolution to demand he obtain their authorization. This is more likely to occur after the midterms if the Democrats take back control.
Poast said a troublesome and unknown part of these negotiations is the demilitarization phase and whether there could even be a scenario where members of Hamas are willing to give up arms and even willing to perhaps renounce the group’s views.
“Anytime you're talking about disarming any type of group, but especially in context of civil wars and insurgencies, this has always been a notoriously difficult problem—largely because there is what we call a commitment problem, which is, ‘Why should I lay down the arms when I can't trust that Israel or the other side isn't going to have an excuse to relaunch military operations?’ That's always been the big question.”
Palestine Still Important Player in Peace Talks
Palestine is a not-often discussed but pivotal piece in the U.S. foreign puzzle.
Sheline noted how Ali Shaath, previously appointed as leader of the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG) and the only speaker being given a time limit (3 minutes) last week, was a sign that “the presence of Palestinians is circumscribed.”
“The 20-point plan ignores the fundamental issue of the Israeli occupation of Palestine and the Palestinians' legal right to self-determination,” Sheline said. “It also ignores Israel's legal accountability for war crimes and possibly the crime of genocide, pending the ICJ [International Court of Justice] ruling."
Although some of the countries on the Board, like Qatar and Saudi Arabia, may push for greater Palestinian inclusion, Israel is likely to try to block any meaningful engagement with the rights of Palestinians.
Poast wonders whether Palestinian participation through the Board of Peace is genuine or mirrors the United States’ actions in Venezuela, as questions remain of whether the committee will use its knowledge of Gaza and its inner workings to conduct a fluid rebuilding of the region.
“Or is this a situation that is very similar to what we've just witnessed with Venezuela?” Poast said, referencing how the U.S. carried out the operation to remove embattled Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
In the aftermath, U.S. officials were skittish on who would run the country and connected Maduro’s removal to oil attainment. There was a lack of explanation and well-thought out plans and strategies, according to Poast.
“My whole point is, there's kind of this lack of awareness of how the situation is and what it would actually take to rebuild,” he added. “With Gaza, there's a similar situation happening where you can have these big pronouncements. … Overall, kind of my big concern is I do worry that there's a lot of this kind of either [being] unaware or just willful ignorance.”
