Is a Peace Deal for Ukraine in the Works?

Share
Ukraine President Volodymr Zelensky and Former U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III shake hands at the end of opening remarks during the Ukraine Defense Contact Group at Ramstein Air Base, Germany, Jan. 9, 2025. Leaders from nearly 50 nations attended the UDCG’s 25th iteration to discuss the ongoing crisis in Ukraine and coordinate continued support to the nation in its defense against Russia. The event also marked Austin’s last UDCG as the U.S. Defense Secretary. U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Jordan Lazaro. Source: DVIDS

In late 2025, reports emerged that the United States and Russian Federation have drafted a framework aimed at ending the war in Ukraine. The proposal, described as a “28-point plan” by some sources, reportedly includes major concessions Ukraine may be required to accept.  

What’s in the Proposed Plan?

According to multiple news reports, the plan calls for Ukraine to cede territory – including parts of the eastern regions still contested or partially under Ukrainian control – and to limit the size and capability of its armed forces. It also reportedly includes provisions that would restrict Ukraine’s future access to alliances: the plan would prevent future expansion of NATO, a key security aspiration for Kyiv and a perceived threat to Russia.  

In exchange, the framework apparently offers security guarantees, a plan for reconstructing Ukraine using frozen Russian assets, and a pathway for Russia’s reintegration into international economic structures. Some reports say the proposal also includes reinstating Russia into what was once the Group of Eight (G8) and provides economic incentives for both sides.  

Reactions from Kyiv and Allies

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, has received the draft plan and will reportedly engage with the U.S. to review its “main points” and explore diplomatic opportunities. However, he has emphasized that Ukraine will not make “rash” decisions. The Ukrainian leadership has expressed that any solution must protect the country’s defense capabilities and ensure continued support for its military.  

Despite these engagements, Ukrainian officials have also described the plan as absurd, arguing it was drafted without Ukraine’s meaningful involvement and criticized it as leaning toward capitulation. One European diplomat said they only learned of this plan through the media. 

European allies have been vocal in asserting they must have a seat at the table. After media reports of the U.S.–Russia framework, European Union diplomats insisted any peace plan must include input from Kyiv and European governments. One EU foreign-policy official stated that for a deal to succeed, both Ukrainians and Europeans must be involved.  

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addresses the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) 21st Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore (DoD photo by Chad J. McNeeley).

U.S. Role and Diplomatic Dynamics

U.S. officials, including Marco Rubio (Secretary of State), confirmed that Washington is actively developing ideas and potential frameworks for peace. Rubio noted that achieving a durable peace will require “both sides to agree to difficult but necessary concessions.”  

Meanwhile, U.S. military leadership has stepped into the process. U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll and other senior Army officials were in Kyiv on a mission to assess battlefield realities, consult with Ukrainian leadership, and present framework materials corresponding to U.S. peace efforts.  

From Moscow’s side, the response has been cautious. The Kremlin stated there is no formal negotiation underway with the U.S. regarding peace proposals, though communication channels remain open. Kremlin officials said there had been no new developments to announce since a summit in August.  

The Challenge Ahead: Trust, Timing, and Strategy

While this U.S.–Russia-drafted framework is said to carry significant weight, its success depends on many variables. Ukraine has insisted it will not surrender its sovereignty or accept territorial losses as part of any agreement. Moscow, meanwhile, has not publicly shifted its long-standing demands, which include demilitarization of Ukraine, territorial claims, and limits on Ukraine’s strategic alignments. 

Furthermore, the fact that negotiations have reportedly been advanced without prior consultation with Kyiv or key European partners has sparked criticism. Some analysts view the effort as an American attempt to broker peace at speed, potentially bypassing allies. Others warn sidelining Ukraine in planning undermines trust and could weaken Europe’s unified position.

On the domestic front, Ukraine is facing additional pressure: amid these diplomatic maneuvers, the government is managing a political shake-up and corruption scandal that has challenged public confidence. According to Reuters, Ukraine’s parliament recently dismissed key ministers in the energy and justice sectors.  

Where Things Stand Now

At present, this proposed peace framework is not a finalized deal. It remains a draft with significant controversy surrounding its terms, legitimacy, and future prospects. Kyiv has not formally accepted or rejected the proposal, stating it is reviewing the plan and continuing diplomatic discussions with the U.S. and its allies.

Any future resolution will likely require a multi-party approach. Observers say a viable agreement must balance Ukraine’s security needs, the strategic interests of European partners, and broader geopolitical realities involving Moscow and Washington.

Story Continues
Share