High-stakes policy talks regarding Eastern Europe are shifting to Turkey as a push for peace collides with Russia’s refusal to join the conversation.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will meet Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara this week as the United States and Ukraine rewrite a controversial 28-point peace plan, even as Russia refuses to attend the talks and Kyiv faces renewed battlefield pressure, intensifying energy attacks, and a deepening humanitarian crisis.
“The president has been clear that it is time to stop the killing and make a deal to end the war. President Trump believes that there is a chance to end this senseless war if flexibility is shown," a senior White House official told Military.com.
That message is playing out publicly online and privately through diplomatic back channels.
On Sunday, President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that there may be movement toward an agreement.
“Is it really possible that big progress is being made in Peace Talks between Russia and Ukraine???” the president wrote.
In a separate post, Trump criticized Ukraine’s leadership while defending his approach: “Ukraine leadership has expressed zero gratitude for our efforts, and Europe continues to buy oil from Russia.”
Zelensky responded online with a markedly different tone.
In an X post on Monday, he wrote, “We await a full and lasting ceasefire to provide the necessary basis for diplomacy,” adding that Ukraine remains “grateful to the United States, to every American heart, and personally to President Trump for the assistance. We thank everyone in Europe.”
Geneva Rewrites a Controversial Plan
U.S. and Ukrainian officials met in Geneva days before the Turkey trip to reshape a peace framework that alarmed lawmakers in Washington and leaders in Kyiv.
The original version was criticized by some U.S. lawmakers, foreign policy experts and Ukrainian officials as being too favorable to Moscow, with provisions requiring major military limits on Ukraine, territorial concessions, and a permanent end to any of Ukraine's NATO ambitions.
Those provisions are now being revised. Officials familiar with the process say language emphasizing Ukrainian sovereignty, territorial integrity and long-term security guarantees has been strengthened—all while still searching for common ground that could eventually bring Russia into a future round.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged the sensitivity of the negotiations and the reality that concessions may be required from both sides.
He said the evolving framework includes “input from both sides” and told the press that “ending a complex and deadly war such as the one in Ukraine requires an extensive exchange of serious and realistic ideas and will require both sides to agree to difficult but necessary concessions.”
The revisions come as the conflict intensifies. Russia has stepped up drone and missile attacks across western and central Ukraine, targeting energy facilities, transportation lines and residential areas as winter swiftly approaches. Power disruptions are spreading across multiple regions, deepening civilian hardship.
An official within the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe indicated the inquiry fell outside that office’s remit, underscoring how carefully many institutions are navigating the unfolding diplomacy.
Turkey Steps into the Spotlight
Turkey has emerged as the central stage for the world’s most delicate diplomacy as renewed peace efforts collide with deep distrust and ongoing war. Erdogan has called Ankara an “ideal host” for negotiations, citing the country’s rare ability to engage Ukraine, Russia and the United States simultaneously.
Turkey is a NATO ally that supports Ukraine’s sovereignty and has provided military assistance, including drones. At the same time, Ankara maintains strong economic and political ties with Moscow. That dual position gives Turkey unusual leverage and puts maximum pressure on Erdogan to deliver tangible progress.
Turkish officials have signaled a willingness to carry messages between Kyiv and Moscow following Zelensky’s visit, even if Russia remains on the sidelines in this initial phase.
The guarded response from governments and institutions around the world reflects the delicate balance Turkey is now managing behind closed doors.
Russia Refuses a Seat at the Table
The Kremlin confirmed it will not send representatives to the talks in Ankara or Istanbul, a decision that leaves a visible gap in the first round of diplomacy.
Russian officials have described the current efforts as premature while simultaneously signaling that Moscow is watching the process closely. State media framed the Ankara meeting as symbolic, with analysts in Moscow suggesting that any serious negotiation must include direct Russian participation and recognition of realities on the ground.
Western officials view that posture as tactical.
By remaining absent for now, Russia avoids being bound to early terms crafted by the United States, Ukraine and Turkey. That allows the Kremlin to assess both public reaction and battlefield trends before deciding whether and how to re-enter the process.
The refusal also continues a pattern seen throughout the war. Moscow has repeatedly rejected talks it does not directly control or host, instead preferring negotiations where it can dictate parameters more forcefully.
At the same time, intensified missile and drone strikes inside Ukraine suggest Russia is pairing diplomatic distance with sustained military pressure—a signal that, analysts say, Moscow intends to strengthen its hand before any real bargaining begins.
Despite the rejection, Ukrainian and Turkish officials say channels remain open and that Moscow has not completely shut the door on future engagement.
Even as global institutions remain cautious publicly, Ukrainian and Turkish officials say channels remain open and that Moscow has not completely shut the door on future engagement.
Fighting Intensifies as Diplomacy Advances
The timing of the talks is stark.
As Zelensky prepares to meet Erdogan, Ukraine continues to absorb heavy air attacks. Waves of drones and missiles have struck power stations, rail infrastructure and residential blocks, causing casualties and widespread damage. Ukrainian officials say the violence is designed to weaken morale and leverage ahead of negotiations.
Entire districts in multiple cities have been left without stable heat, water or electricity. Emergency crews are struggling to restore service as repeated strikes hit newly repaired infrastructure. Schools and hospitals have been forced onto limited generator power, while transportation corridors remain vulnerable.
Civilian displacement is again on the rise, with thousands seeking shelter in underground stations, reinforced bunkers and rural areas as air raid sirens echo nightly across the country. Local officials warn that prolonged outages and continued bombardment could turn an already severe humanitarian situation into a full-scale winter crisis.
Despite the dangers, rescue teams, utility workers and volunteers continue operating around the clock—often under threat of follow-up strikes.
Prisoner Swaps Offer Narrow Opening
While a ceasefire remains uncertain, one path forward has emerged.
Negotiators are pressing quietly for a large-scale prisoner exchange that could become the first concrete outcome of the Turkey talks. Ukrainian officials, working through intermediaries in Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, are seeking the release of up to 1,200 captured Ukrainians, including service members, medics and civilians held in Russian-controlled territory.
Officials familiar with the process say names and case files are already being vetted as part of an early confidence-building effort. Such exchanges have historically proven to be one of the only practical breakthroughs in an otherwise frozen diplomatic landscape, sometimes advancing even as broader negotiations stall.
Relatives of detained soldiers and civilians have organized vigils, contacted governments and humanitarian groups and flooded social media pleading for any progress. Many say they have received no proof of life in months.
Humanitarian organizations remain positioned in the background, prepared to assist with verification and transfer logistics if a deal is finalized.
Humanitarian and advocacy organizations remain positioned off the record, prepared to assist with verification and logistics if an agreement is finalized, though several declined to comment publicly due to the sensitivity of the negotiations.
